File Sharing and Online Piracy How Does it Effect...

As you upload the most recent (and most spectacular) new Lady Gaga album Art Pop into your ITunes Library, you scale back and take a long look at your devoted collection. You’ve collected nearly 2000 songs, 150 movies, and 200 books. From the Beatles to Deadmau3, Miley Cyrus to Nirvana, you have every type of music you could possibly imagine. Worst of all, you don’t even listen to a tenth of it! You’ve collected all this media for an outrageous price too: Absolutely Nothing. After 2 and half years of constant file sharing through Limewire, Frostwire, and Vuze, You’ve easily transcended beyond a four or five thousand dollar threshold of Pirated Media. In the end though, your actions do come with a cost. When the federal government discovers†¦show more content†¦It can be argued that the music industry has expanded into countless genres, artists and record labels over the years since 2000 to become bigger than it has ever been. So where have all the sales gone? It’s more than evident that file sharing has become much more attractive to music fans than it once was. People haven’t lost their interest in music, but have instead found new ways of obtaining it. These File sharing software such as Azuerus give the everyday computer the ability to obtain any files it’s user would like with a good internet connection and a couple clicks of a mouse. In short, people no longer need to pay for any music that they would like to own. Rojas, Fabio. The history of recording industry sales, 1973-2010. 2011. The History of Recording Industry Sales, 1973-2010, United States of America. http://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/the-history-of-recording-industry-sales-1973-2010/. Web. 3 Apr. 2014. Peer-to-Peer file sharing is a more unorthodox way of obtaining files because instead of going through a web browser to get files, computer users use software such as Limewire and Vuze to access the files on other user’s comp uters. These file sharing software find as many computers as they can with the files that they are looking for, divide up the information necessary among the computers, and download a fraction of information from each computer. Each computer is given the title â€Å"peer† if it is utilized in theShow MoreRelatedThe Effects Of Cloud Based Music Streaming On Piracy And Music Consumption1485 Words   |  6 PagesThe effects of cloud based music streaming on piracy and music consumption. Jonathan Stratton English 123 B 12/7/2015 California Baptist University Abstract: With the advent of modern technology, the way our culture consumes music has changes dramatically in the last ten years. With technology developing as rapidly as it is; music piracy has been prosperous while traditional music sales have declined. This essay explores how cloud based music services have affected musicRead MoreOnline Piracy: Threat to the Entertainment and Software Business1315 Words   |  6 PagesOnline piracy is being a threat to the business of the music, movie, and software industries. From Dictionary.com (n.d.), the definition of piracy is the unauthorized reproduction or use of a copyrighted book, recording, television program, patented invention, trademarked product. The focus of this paper is in the music, software, and e-book industries. Importance of Online Piracy to the Field of International Management The problem with online piracy is that companies are being affected by itRead MoreMedia Piracy1584 Words   |  7 Pages Media Piracy Vicente K. Maselli Florida International University CGS 3095 Section RVCC Summer.2017 Abstract Media piracy can sometimes be viewed as a repercussion of the digital age we live in. Although it had grown to become a common practice over the last 20 years, media piracy continues to be an illegal activity monitored by the Federal Bureau for Intelligence (FBI). Its effects range over a variety of industries, including software, music, TV and movieRead MoreEssay on Electronic File Sharing2697 Words   |  11 PagesElectronic File Sharing Often times new technology enables completely new activities, discoveries, and ways of living, once not possible without that particular technology. An example of this would be the microscope and telescope, which now allow us to see things not possible before. Other times, new technology allows us to do things which we did before, but in a different way.1 A good example of this is electronic file sharing over the Internet. Unauthorized file sharing was possibleRead MoreEssay on The Global Ethical Perspective of Peer-to-peer File-sharing4081 Words   |  17 PagesThe Global Ethical Perspective of Peer-to-peer File-sharing Introduction This paper is an analytical essay on global ethical issues on peer-to-peer (P2P) file-sharing. A history and background of peer-to-peer file-sharing will be given, as well as how it became an issue. This paper will explore what aspects of file-sharing are ethical and at what point it becomes unethical. An explanation of the laws will be described and whether the laws different from region-to-region around the worldRead MoreIfsm 304 A11344 Words   |  6 PagesSOFTWARE PIRACY IFSM 304 Abstract In the various media industries there are extreme worries concerning unauthorized downloading and copying of their products known as piracy. Piracy of items has been part of commerce for centuries; counterfeiting of currency for example. With the information age the ease at which media can be pirated has caused an explosion of this phenomenon. This practice is an illegal act that is done by individuals for personal use and also for profit. The first doRead MoreThe Copyright Law Of Canada Connected With An Ethical Line Within Music Sharing1672 Words   |  7 PagesThis paper discusses the copyright law in Canada connected with an ethical line in music sharing. Before embarking on the discussion, it is imperative to understand what copyright entails under the umbrella of intellectual property; the latter refers to intangible property, which is entirely a creation of the mind (Alexander Penalver, 2012, p. 188). Copyright is the exclusive right granted to the original author of li terary work. In this effect, it prevents other people from using an authorshipRead MoreEthical Aspects of Torrents3523 Words   |  14 PagesThe ethical issues surrounding free video games are the same, with game developers and publishers claiming that game torrents are taking money out of their hands and the hands of their staff. Games are widely available for purchase and once purchased become property of the gamer. A game can range in price from a few dollars to around 60 dollars for AAA games (Games created by large companies on massive budgets). Video games are also almost exclusively downloaded through torrents as game files areRead MoreThe Film Piracy Problem 5892 Words   |  24 PagesThe Film Piracy Problem The Film Piracy Problem Teacher Overview Film piracy is the illegal copying and distribution of movies in print, videos, DVDs or electronic files. New developments in digital technology make server-based or peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing on the Internet convenient and relatively fast. A negative consequence of this new technology, however, is online theft of copyrighted material. This lesson introduces students to the problem of film piracy, focusing specifically on InternetRead MoreDigital Piracy And Its Impact On Society Essay2403 Words   |  10 Pagesperception and comprehension of modern digital piracy. Examining the culture of piracy, how and why people pirate content, as well as the legal and industrial components of piracy can provide a contextualized understanding of piracy in the digital age, and the future of piracy. Understanding technological and ethical factors that lead to piracy, and legal and industrial repercussions to digital piracy are essential to navigating a discussion about whether or not piracy ha s a great impact on industry or society

Character Analysis Of Beowulf - 1990 Words

Over the course of a lifetime, time’s greatest power lies within its ability to evolve different aspects of our lives. In Beowulf, our epic hero, Beowulf, experiences a significant change of character; he begins as a humble warrior, and develops into a well-respected and powerful king. However, previous kings, such as King Hrothgar, rose to the throne due to their noble statuses in addition to the standardized succession of power in early British history. The stark contrast between these two notable kings remains that Beowulf first played the role as a valuable and principle warrior, a true epic hero, while King Hrothgar did not. Beowulf exhibited characteristics of loyalty and strength, among many others; however, were these character†¦show more content†¦With his outward expression of this select trait, the people will have a repertoire to expand their trust upon. One way for him to exercise his confidence is through his physical appearance. In the beginning of the poem, the readers are introduced to a younger warrior, named Beowulf. With his â€Å"decorated shields †¦ shirts of mail †¦ and cheek-hinged helmets and javelins† (335-336), Beowulf is vividly depicted as an experienced, vigorous warrior dedicated to protecting his king and his people. With this clear show of dedication, Beowulf is able to initially set a precedent for his people with regards to his confidence as a warrior. However, confidence must also be displayed through words and actions. Beowulf accomplishes this when he is confronted by Unferth. At first skeptical, and somewhat jealous, of Beowulf’s immediate glorification, Unferth comes forward to verbally challenge and question Beowulf’s capabilities in defeating Grendel. Beowulf remains calm in the attacks extorted, and confidently responds: â€Å"He [Grendel] knows he can trample down you Danes to his heart’s content, humiliate and murder without fear of reprisal. But he will find me different. I will show him how Geats shape to kill in the heat of battle† (599-603). His confidence in defeating a terrifying monster that had never been vanquished by theShow MoreRelatedBeowulf Character Analysis885 Words   |  4 Pagesanalyzing and reading the text in Beowulf, I realized that Beowulf himself is a leader and a hero in the text also he plays a big role as the protagonist being a hero for saving his kingdom against monsters and mortal enemies but exactly how does it make him a greater hero than the average hero? In the text Beowulf’s uncle which is Hygelac was said to be a great ruler and it is evident that this is Beowulf’s role model and hero and as the story goes on. As a character Beowulf encounters with great monstersRead MoreCharacter Analysis Of Beowulf900 Words   |  4 PagesThe main character in the epic poem â€Å"Beowulf† is Beowulf. An epic hero is one that has superhuman qualities and who beholds values of his society and is braver than life. â€Å"Epics are stories told on a grand scale, with armies, heroes, gods, and the brutal forces of nature depicted over long character arcs and sweeping landscapes.† (Rebecca Ray 1) Beowulf is a selfless warrior that puts the kingdom of Herot first and tries to rid evil for the people. Beowulf wanted to help his kingdom. The evilRead MoreBeowulf Character Analysis942 Words   |  4 PagesThe Great Motivator (An analysis of Beowulf’s Motivations) Are everyones motivations to become a hero pure? This question can be hard to answer depending on the hero. Spidermans motivations for saving an innocent child were pure, but what about people suffering from hero syndrome? A syndrome, that has become a recent phenomenon. This syndrome makes people seek heroism or recognition by creating desperate situations that they resolve in order to become a hero. As common as this syndrome is todayRead MoreBeowulf Character Analysis999 Words   |  4 PagesMost teachers emphasize that a well-written character in a story should be deep, believable, and human, with flaws and personality. Then, say that Beowulf, a poem about a man who is as deep as a sheet of paper, is a masterpiece. While the poem Beowulf is one of the most important and influential pieces of literature in the world, Beowulf himself is a poorly written character when compared to characters of today’s standards. Beowulf is originally a Scandinavian story from a period before written recordsRead MoreBeowulf Character Analysis801 Words   |  4 PagesBeowulf is an ancient English poem that tells the tale of a young, brave warrior and the victories he obtains throughout his lifetime, up until his death. He is widely regarded as a hero throughout the lands and honorably puts his life on the line multiple times. Throughout the poem, Beowulf’s reasoning for being a hero changes. He begins his journey wanting to be a protector of people, a savior of humankind, but as the poem progresses, there is a distinct change in motivation for Beowulf, becomingRead MoreCharacter Analysis Of Beowulf1128 Words   |  5 Pagesâ€Å"good† people. The â€Å"good† people referring to the average mix of people, the athletes, the overachievers, the mean people, the bystanders, the regular people, and the hero. In Beowulf, there’s much more backstory to Grendel and why he is portrayed as, and most possibly has become, evil. Grendel’s character is similar to the characters Jinenji, Magneto, and the Grinch, during the different stages of his life before he is slain. That is not denying that Grendel hasn’t taken advantage of his abilities forRead MoreBeowulf And Hamlet Character Analysis1224 Words   |  5 PagesWhen lining the characters Beowulf and Hamlet side by side many will not see the parallels of these characters instead, only the differences. At a first glance, we see Beowulf, the powerful warrior who died whilst defeating three gruesome monsters, then Hamlet, the problematic and fearful prince who died trying to fulfill a foolish act of hatred. Ultimately, we view them as hero Read MoreBeowulf And Hamlet Character Analysis1228 Words   |  5 PagesWhen lining the characters Beowulf and Hamlet side by side many will not see the parallels of these characters instead, only the differences. At a first glance, we see Beowulf, the strong warrior who died whilst defeating three gruesome monsters, then Hamlet, the awkward and fearful prince who died trying to fulfill a foolish act of hatred. Ultimately, we view them as hero and anti-hero. However, we must not judge each character on who they are at the surface. Instead, we must see and understandRead MoreThe Odyssey And Beowulf : Character Analysis1642 Words   |  7 Pagesway to clearly mark certain behaviors as poor social etiquette. Through the use of extreme behavior that identifies a character as immoral, other behaviors that are exhibited are reinforced as distasteful and frowned upon by the society and culture. Without explicitly stating the rules, people are shown the correct and incorrect behaviors. Within The Odyssey and Beowulf, two characters clearly violate social norms by invading spaces that no one invited them into. The suitors and Grendel both demonstrateRead MoreCharacter Analysis Of Beowulf As An Epic Hero765 Words   |  4 Pagesthe central figure who has superior qualities and risks personal danger to pursue a quest. Beowulf is a great epic hero because he performs many brave deeds such as risking his life for the greater good of society, and is significant and glorified by all people. Beowulf boasts and boasts about all of his great doings, but in the end he proves to everyone that h e is as great as he claims to be. First, Beowulf shows that he will do anything for the fame, glory, and the greater good of society. He risks

Research Papers on Ready to Eat Food Free Essays

CRISES Paul Krugman, January 2010 As this is formally billed on this program as the Nobel lecture, I suppose that I’m expected to focus on the work for which I was honored with the prize. And yet †¦ proud as I am of the work I and many others did on increasing-returns trade and economic geography, given what is happening in the world – and given what I’ve largely been working on these past dozen years – that work is not uppermost in my mind. Fortunately, there’s an out. We will write a custom essay sample on Research Papers on Ready to Eat Food or any similar topic only for you Order Now The Nobel committee did cite another line of work that goes back to the first good paper I ever wrote: â€Å"A model of balance of payments crises†, published in 1979 but originally written while I was in still in grad school. When I’m in an expansive mood, I like to say that I invented currency crises – not the thing itself, which goes back to the invention of paper money, but the modern academic literature. And business has been good ever since. Now, most of what has gone wrong with the world these past two years has not taken the form of classic currency crises (though give it time – the Baltic nations, in particular, seem well positioned to follow in Argentina’s footsteps). But there are strong parallels between the kinds of crises we actually have been experiencing and what those of us in the currency crisis biz call â€Å"third-generation† crises. Both the similarities and the differences are, I think, illuminating. 1 So without further ado, let me launch into a discussion of currency crises, their relationship to financial crises in general, and what all of that tells us about current prospects. A history of violence The sudden implosion of world financial markets, trade, and industrial production in 2008 shocked many if not most economists. I think it’s fair to say, however, that international macroeconomists were less startled. That’s not to say that we predicted the crisis: speaking personally, I saw that we had a monstrous housing bubble and expected bad things as it deflated, but both the form and the scale of the collapse surprised me. What is true, however, is that international macroeconomists were aware, in a way those who focused mainly on domestic data were not, that the world economy has a history of violence. Drastic events – sudden speculative attacks that emerge out of a seemingly clear blue sky, abrupt economic implosions that slash real GDP by 5, 10, even 15 percent – are regular occurrences on the international scene. Let me illustrate the point with the figure below, which shows peak-to-trough declines in real GDP during â€Å"third generation† currency crises (a term I’ll explain in a little while). This list is close to, but not identical to, the Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) list of banking crises: as RR point out, crises often combine elements of several of their ideal types. What I’ve done in this case – in a poor man’s homage to Reinhart and Rogoff’s awesome data-collection effort – is scan the Total Economy Database for all cases of sharp GDP declines in high-and middle-income countries since 1950, then do some cursory historical research to ask whether they fit the profile of a third-generation crisis. 2 GDP declines in third-generation currency crises Mexico 1994 Korea 1997 Chile 1981 Malaysia 1997 Finland 1990 Thailand 1997 Indonesia 1997 Argentina 2002 5 10 15 20 A few observations: First of all, we’re talking huge declines here – Depression-level, in some cases. You can see why international macroeconomists were more attuned to the possibility of disaster than domestic macroeconomists: if you were looking only at US data, your idea of a really bad slump would be 1981-1982, when real GDP fell only 2. 3 percent. Second, if you know a bit about the history, you get a very strong sense of just how wrong conventional wisdom can be. Reinhart and Rogoff emphasize the â€Å"this time is different† syndrome, the way people wave off clear parallels to earlier crises. I’d go a bit further and argue that there’s a strong â€Å"pride goeth before a fall† syndrome. In many if not all of these cases, the country in question was everybody’s darling just before the disaster. Chile was a showpiece for Chicago School policies in action. I remember personally the enormous optimism about Mexico on the eve of the tequila crisis; I was very unpopular at a 1993 meeting of investors where I raised some questions about prospects. Argentina’s currency board was lionized by the Cato Institute, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, and so forth. The countries caught up in the East Asian crisis were the subject of glowing reports, including a major World Bank study. 3 After the fact, of course, everybody saw many flaws in each afflicted country’s economic model – just as everyone now sees the rottenness of the U. S. financial system, a system that was being praised just yesterday as one of the wonders of the world. Finally, note that half my examples are from the late-90s East Asian crisis. That crisis had a profound effect on some of us. Nouriel Roubini was transformed from a mild-mannered macroeconomist into Doctor Doom. I lost my faith in the healing powers of central bankers, and wrote the original edition of The Return of Depression Economics. In essence, the East Asian crisis awakened us to the fact that there were more dangers in the world economy than were dreamt of in textbook macro. But what were these dangers, anyway? Generat(ion)ing crisis All crises are divided into three parts. OK, maybe not. But the currency risis literature has evolved in three â€Å"generations†, successive accounts of what can cause sudden speculative attacks on currencies. First-generation models began, at least in my mind, with wise words from the governor of the Bank of Portugal. Back in 1976, a group of MIT graduate students was working at the Bank, thanks to a personal connection between the governor and Dick Eckaus. Portugal at the time was 4 a bit of a crazy place, still suffering from the mild chaos that followed the overthrow of the dictatorship the year before. The economy had stabilized after an initial slump, but the currency was under pressure, with reserves rapidly dwindling. It turned out later that most of the reserve loss was due to foreign exchange hoarding by commercial banks – which was kind of funny, since at the time those banks were state –owned. But in any case, the governor made a remark that intrigued me: â€Å"When I have six months of reserves,† he said, â€Å"I will have no reserves. † What he meant was that once reserves dropped below some critical level, there would be a run on the currency that would quickly exhaust whatever was left. There were already economic models like this, albeit of very recent vintage – and not exactly about foreign exchange. Notably, Salant and Henderson (1978, but circulated as a working paper in 1976), in an analysis of gold prices, devoted part of their paper to attempts to stabilize gold prices with stockpiles. They showed that an unsustainable stabilization scheme would eventually collapse in a speculative run that quickly exhausted the remaining stock, which is more or less what happened in March 1968. I realized that this was in effect what Silva Lopes had been saying about the escudo. Translating that insight into a fully-specified model was a bit tricky. Krugman (1979) was more complicated than it should have been; it took the work of Flood and Garber (1984) to get it in comprehensible form. But the result was a highly suggestive analysis of speculative attacks on fixed exchange rates. 5 But there were problems with that analysis. Some complained about the asymmetry between super smart speculators and super stupid governments. More compelling, in my view, was the fact that the story didn’t seem to fit very well with what actually happened in many currency crises, especially in advanced countries. For example, neither the sterling crisis of 1931 nor that of 1992 seemed to be mainly about dwindling foreign exchange reserves. Instead, both seemed to be about governments who found that their commitment to a fixed exchange rate was interfering with attempts to achieve domestic objectives, especially full employment. When speculators began to bet on an abandonment of the currency peg to deal with pressing domestic concerns, spiking interest rates sharply increased the cost of defending that peg – hence, a crisis, with speculators in effect forcing the government’s hand. In an influential survey of evidence from the 1992-1993 European crisis, of which the fall of sterling was one component, Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1995) coined the term â€Å"secondgeneration models† to describe models that tried to capture this quite different kind of crisis dynamics. The most influential modeling came from Obstfeld (1994), who showed that this kind of analysis strongly suggested the possibility of multiple equilibria: countries in a vulnerable state could experience a currency crisis whenever investors believed that such a crisis was imminent, or for that matter believed that other investors believed in a crisis. But two generations of crisis theory, it turned out, were not enough. Second-generation crisis models suggested that succumbing to a speculative attack should be good for employment and GDP: no longer constrained by the exchange rate commitment, a government would be free to 6 expand demand. That is, in fact, what happened in the aftermath of the two sterling crises, 60 years apart: I used to joke that Britain should erect a statue of George Soros in Trafalgar Square, to thank him for getting the UK out of the ERM. But it’s not what happened to Mexico after the tequila crisis, or the East Asian economies after the crises of 1997, or Argentina after the collapse of convertibility in 2002. In all these cases the collapse of a fixed rate under speculative attack was followed by a severe contraction in the real economy. Hence the development of third-generation models. These models – e. g. Krugman (1999), Aghion et al (2001), Chang and Velasco (1999) – emphasized private-sector balance sheets, especially firms or banks with foreign-currency debt. The key argument was that a currency depreciation set off by speculative attack would sharply worsen balance sheets, as the domesticcurrency value of foreign-currency debt rose. This in turn would damage the economy, e. g. by depressing investment, which would feed back into further currency depreciation, and so on. Some models stressed the possibility of multiple equilibria, but even without such multiplicity there was the clear possibility of disproportionate depreciation and output decline from an adverse shock, including the end of a bubble financed by foreign capital. Or to put it a different way, what happens in a third-generation currency crisis is a vicious circle of deleveraging. Hence the severe cost to the real economy. One question you might ask is whether this diagnosis is all ex-post rationalization. Did the theory of third-generation currency crises actually succeed in predicting any crises? The answer is yes: Argentina, which, alas, played out exactly as expected. 7 Before I proceed to the relationship between currency crises and the financial crises that have afflicted all of us recently, let me briefly ighlight two policy issues that arise in the context of third-generation crises. First, does this analysis argue that troubled economies with large foreign-currency debt should avoid currency depreciation? This is a highly relevant question right now for the Baltics, which, as I’ve already mentioned, are currently in a situation highly reminiscent of Argentina’s position just before the collapse. It might seem, given the a ccount I’ve just provided, that Latvia or Estonia should do anything possible to avoid devaluation. But that’s not right. Suppose that the underlying problem is a level of prices and wages that makes your production uncompetitive – typically the consequence of an earlier period of excessive capital inflows. Then what must happen, sooner or later, is a decline in prices and wages relative to those in your trading partners – a real depreciation. This can happen through nominal currency depreciation – but this has the unpleasant consequence that the real value of foreign currency debt will rise, creating a deleveraging crisis. Unfortunately, the alternative is worse. Real depreciation without nominal depreciation must take place through deflation. And this means that the real value of all debt, not just foreigncurrency debt, rises. So the deleveraging crisis will be even worse if you don’t depreciate. 8 A second issue concerns the role of capital mobility. Clearly, substantial capital mobility is a prerequisite for third-generation crises, which can’t happen unless you’ve already run up a large foreign-currency debt. And in the crisis, it’s capital flight that leads to the large depreciation that in turn worsens balance sheets. So there is a clear case for temporary capital controls – a sort of curfew on capital flight – in the heat of a third-generation currency crisis. But what does all this have to do with the current problems of the United States and other advanced countries? Deleveraging crises: similarities and differences In the movie The Longest Day there’s a scene involving a German general who is first shown preparing for a war game in which he will play the American commander. He tells his aide that he plans to surprise everyone by landing, not at Calais, but in Normandy – but not to worry, the Americans would never do that. Then, when the invasion begins, he mutters, â€Å"Normandy! How stupid of me! † Now you know how some of us felt as the current crisis unfolded. By 2006, huge U. S. urrent account deficits suggested that the dollar would have to fall eventually, and the fact that U. S. real interest rates weren’t significantly higher than rates in other major economies suggested that markets weren’t taking that fact into account. So there was reason to expect a Wile E. Coyote moment – a moment of sudden realization – leading to a 9 sudden dollar fall. But U. S. external debt, although large, is overwhelmingly dollar-denominated. So America didn’t seem vulnerable to a third-generation currency crisis. No worries, then, right? Yet the logic of the models should have suggested that there were, in fact, reasons to worry. After all, a vicious circle of deleveraging could arise as easily on the asset side as on the liability side, as noted in Krugman (2002). It should have been easy to put the evidence of a mammoth housing bubble together with the concepts of third-generation crisis theory to see how a nasty deleveraging cycle could occur without the â€Å"original sin† of dependence on foreign-currency debt. Sadly, almost nobody – certainly not yours truly – put the pieces together. Even those of us who diagnosed that housing bubble correctly failed to foresee the financial implosion that would follow. Normandy! How stupid of me! But now it has happened. How does the crisis we have actually stumbled into compare with a currency crisis, both in terms of outlook and in terms of the policy response? One difference one might have expected to be important is the role of monetary policy. The normal front line of defense against recession involves cutting interest rates. For a country facing a currency crisis, however, that defense is of ambiguous value: cutting rates may help domestic demand, but it may also weaken the currency, intensifying the vicious circle. For a country facing an asset-side deleveraging spiral, however, interest rate reductions are all good: in 10 addition to their usual effects, they support asset prices and help balance sheets. So you might have expected central banks to be very effective in fighting asset-price-driven deleveraging. In reality, however, the monetary line of defense was quickly overrun: reductions in policy rates quickly ran up against the zero lower bound, and that was that, at least as far as conventional monetary policy was concerned. We should have seen this coming: Krugman (2002) laid it all out, but nobody – the author included – took the message to heart. Meanwhile, there’s another difference between currency crises and asset-side crises that makes the latter look worse: namely, the fact that asset-price deflation, unlike currency depreciation, has no indirect stimulative effect on the economy. As Calvo et al (2006) have stressed, financial crises in emerging markets are often followed by â€Å"phoenix-like† recoveries, with the downturn giving way to very rapid growth. Key to these recoveries is the fact that a severely depreciated currency makes exports extremely competitive, leading to a large positive swing in the trade balance. As with the output declines associated with third-generation crises, the violence of these turnarounds is startling to economists accustomed to the tameness of U. S. data. The figure below shows the â€Å"current account reversal† for each of the cases shown at the beginning of this paper – that is, the extent of the swing from current account deficit on the eve of the crisis to the maximum current account surplus following the crisis. 1 Current account reversal as % of GDP 0 Mexico 1994 Korea 1997 Chile 1981 Malaysia 1997 Finland 1990 Thailand 1997 Indonesia 1997 Argentina 2002 5 10 15 20 25 These are awesomely large swings. In part, no doubt, they were due to the import-compressing effect of recession. But mostly they represent a gain in competitiveness due to plunging currencies. Plunging prices of house s and CDOs, unfortunately, don’t produce any corresponding macroeconomic silver lining. This suggests that we’re unlikely to see a phoenix-like recovery from the current slump. How long should recovery be expected to take? Well, there aren’t many useful historical models. But the example that comes closest to the situation facing the United States today is that of Japan after its late-80s bubble burst, leaving serious debt problems behind. And a maximum-likelihood estimate of how long it will take to recover, based on the Japanese example, is †¦ forever. OK, strictly speaking it’s 18 years, since that’s how long it has been since the Japanese bubble burst, and Japan has never really escaped from its deflationary trap. 2 This line of thought explains why I’m skeptical about the optimism that’s widespread right now about recovery prospects. The main argument behind this optimism seems to be that in the past, big downturns in the world’s major economies have been followed by fast recoveries. But past downturns had very different causes, and there’s no good reason to regard them as good precedents. Living in a crisis-ridden world Looking back at U. S. commentary on past currency crises, what’s striking is the combination of moralizing and complacency. Other countries had crises because they did it wrong; we weren’t going to have one because we do it right. As I’ve stressed, however, crises often – perhaps usually – happen to countries with great press. They’re only reclassified as sinners and deadbeats after things go wrong. And so it has proved for us, too. And despite the praise being handed out to those who helped us avoid the worst, we are not handling the crisis well: fiscal stimulus has been inadequate, financial support has contained the damage but not restored a healthy banking system. All indications are that we’re going to have seriously depressed output for years to come. It’s what I feared/predicted in that 2001 paper: â€Å"[I]ntellectually consistent solutions to a domestic financial crisis of this type, like solutions to a third-generation currency crisis, are likely to seem too radical to be implemented in practice. And partial measures are likely to fail. † 13 Maybe policymakers will become wiser in the future. Maybe financial reform will reduce the occurrence of crises: major financial crises were much rarer between the end of World War II and the rise of financial deregulation after 1980 than they were before or since. Meanwhile, however, the fact is that the economic world is a surprisingly dangerous place. REFERENCES Aghion, Philippe, Philippe Bacchetta, and Abhijit Banerjee, 2000, â€Å"Currency Crises and Monetary Policy with Credit Constraints† (unpublished; Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University). Chang, Roberto and Andres Velasco 1999, â€Å"Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy,† NBER Working Paper No. 7272. Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew, Wyplosz, Charles and Dumas, Bernard, â€Å"Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks†, Economic Policy, October. Flood, Robert, and Peter Garber 1984, â€Å"Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Linear Examples,† Journal of International Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 1–13. Krugman, Paul, 1979, â€Å"A Model of Balance of Payments Crises,† Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 11, pp. 311-325. Krugman, Paul, 1999, â€Å"Balance Sheets, The Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises,† in Flood, Robert, Isard, Peter, Razin, Assaf, and Rose, Andrew, eds. , International finance and financial crises: essays in honor of Robert P . Flood, Jr. , Kluwer. Krugman, Paul 2002, â€Å"Crises: the next generation† in Assaf Razin, Elhanan Helpman, and Efraim Sadka, eds. , Economic policy in the international economy: essays in honor of Assaf Razin, Cambridge. Obstfeld, Maurice; 1994, â€Å"The Logic of Currency Crises,† Cahiers Economiques et Monetaires, Bank of France, Vol. 43, pp. 189-213. Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth 2009, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton. Salant, Stephen and Henderson, Dale 1978, â€Å"Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold†, Journal of Political Economy 14 How to cite Research Papers on Ready to Eat Food, Essays

Formal Speech Analysis free essay sample

Formal Speech Analysis In the past, I have participated In a lot of classes and training dealing with many different topics, but unfortunately, public speaking and/or communications was not one of them. In fact, the last class that I took even relatively close to this one was while I was in the military. In some sense, I guess that this class could be thought of as a good experience, because now I can learn at a college level and be more at ease with getting up in front of a group of people and giving a presentation.My goals or this class are fairly numerous, but all are based on all around knowledge and Improvement of public speaking In a general sense. I want to be able to get up In front of a group of people and deliver a message in a way that makes people want to listen. We will write a custom essay sample on Formal Speech Analysis or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page I am planning a career in the field of psychology, and as much as I may not like it, I think public speaking will definitely show its face many times. My specific goals for the course include improving on my stance, speaking more clearly, and improving on my fear of speaking in front of a large group.After reviewing my videotaped beech and also in previous presentations, I have noticed that, among other things, I am constantly fidgeting and doing something with my hands Like playing with my note cards or something. Also, I am clearly not comfortable with standing up there. Although it is not overly visible on the tape, I can tell that I look very nervous, and I tend to stutter a little and lose my place and focus in the middle of the speeches frequently. I really do not understand why speaking in front of the class bothers me so much. If I were to give the speech from my desk. En though everyone would still be looking at me, I think that I could do a much better Job and would be more relaxed as well. I think that Improving on these previous aspects will give me enough experience and confidence to at least have a working knowledge and ability to successfully speak publicly such as feeling more comfort and familiar with the subject matter. Although my career will probably not involve a vast amount of public speaking, it will require some, and this course will surely provide valuable practice for what Is to come in my career.